Bitcoin is a currency designed for deflation, not inflation, over time. However, this is not the current situation. Bitcoin is currently in a period with inflation, not deflation. This means that more fiat money (USD/EUR/etc) must keep flowing in each day in order to keep the price stable or rising.

Bitcoin is currently in a very bullish trend-channel. It is currently trading at $145 in a bullish trendchannel and both 15m and 60 minute charts look very promising.

Things look good for USD/BTC short-term. It is, however, very important to keep in mind that Bitcoin currently depends on a lot of new money flowing in each day in order to keep it’s current value or rise.

Fact: 25 brand new BTC are mined with each block. This works out to about 3600 brand new Bitcoins mined each day. The current price is, as said, $145. This works out to about half a million USD each day just to keep the current price – assuming all mined BTC are immediately sold at market value.

We broke out up from the big slightly descending triangle firmed on the BTC 60 minute chart. That should be a very bullish signal – except for the fact that we did so on close to zero volume. Volume players does not seem to be buying this. The jury is still deciding if this is a real breakout of just a fakeout, time will show.

Take a look at this chart and notice the spikes where someone first sold the order book way down from the current price – just to buy the whole order book way up. This was done twice on April 27th.

It sounds like buy high sell low, does it not? So why on earth would someone do such a thing?

It is all about triggering peoples “stopp loss” orders.

I believe the idea is that they do what they do where the bigger players are. so, they buy high and sell low to the small guys, but, when it passes someones stop loss, it’s profitable since stop losses are inherently losing trades, which means that it’d be a winning trade for the one triggering it.

Normal trades triggered by big players are profitable, since they have no stop loss, just profitable setups. Those are not the main concern of the people triggering stops. The main concern of the people triggering stops are the larger players, who, having more to lose, have a stop loss set, which is apparently around the area of parabolic SAR. Anyways, so they push the price past the target’s stop point, and then the target sells a losing trade to stop their losses.

If target is bullish, let’s just say they entered at 100 and expect 130, w/ stop loss at 90. The mover would sell at 100 to get target in, then drop the price by selling further till price hits 90, where the target would then place sell orders to stop their loss, which then equates to the mover having bought at 90 and sold at 100, where ideally the number of shares bought at 90 and sold at 100 offsets the amount it took to drop the price that far.

thanks to Rav3n for explaining this.

Full video and story at The Guardian: Bitcoin: world’s fastest growing currency migrates off the internet

Bitcoin is a digital currency backed by nothing. It can not be forged and it can be transfered from one place to another in less than an hour. That is the value of the digital currency. It has no “true value” beyond how the market prices it at any given point in time. This makes it very suceptable to speculation and manipulation.

Bitcoins where traded at $161.5 on 2013-04-25 09:15 CET. It set a pivid low at $120 on 2013-04-25 20:30 CET. $161.5 to $120 is a very big move in such a “short” time-period.

BTC then set a double bottom and a new master level at $128. It is currently trading in a long-term downwards channel. BTC is short-term consolidating between $128 and $136.6. What’s next? It depends on where be break out of this consolidation channel, both $128 and $136.6 may be tested and hold or break.
Master support levels on the downside are $115.14 and $96.

The high of $166 set 2013-04-24 at 16:15 is now a new important master resistance level. $166 will likely be the upper limit for Bitcoin for months to come. The upside set a lot of new resistance levels during the downturn, $143.4 and $148.9/150 are the most important onces.

The big drop from $166 to $120 is actually just a bullflag when you look at it in the 4hour chart. I am actually very long-term bullish right now.

Target $135 if it fully forms, pattern triggered by sales below $145-143 area. Bullish if pattern does not fully form and BTC breaks up above $158. I am in a neutral position right now (50/50 BTC/USD), not trading this before I see how it plays out.